So since Vista's release, Microsoft has been having problems, but I've noticed a convergence of a couple of trends in my life. I think these trends, and my participation/consideration of participation in them signals trouble for MS. I'm sure I'm not the first person to say this, but I feel I'm more of a "regular consumer" than I am a technophile - or at least less of one than most and this puts me more in line with what "most" people are going to do... That being said - here are my observations:
1) The rise of web application. Lately I've noticed how you barely need applications on your desktop. Web apps are so rich that most of us can use them for what we need and never have to install anything. Photoshop Express, Google Docs, Google Calendar, Animoto, the list goes on and on. I'm sure they will not replace hardcore installed functionality, but it is like the electric car. It isn't for everyone, just 90% of the users.
2) Apple's Halo Effect. The oft mentioned halo effect of the iPod/iPhone has people running to buy a Mac. I was even considering this, until I looked at the price. Regardless, people love Apple's design and what they are doing with their OS. Also, the iPhone's new SDK sounds like it is going to wipe the floor with every other cell phone SDK, furthering the halo effect.
3) Rise of Linux. I'm not the first person to get Linux, but I'm probably one of the first "regular" people to do so. My old XP machine was a slug on XP (P4 1.4gh w/ 512mb ram), but with Ubuntu and Firefox it is blazing fast! Now, getting all the drivers can be a pain, but now I use that computer! Also, combining this with #1 - there is no real need for the MS compatible apps because they all work in Firefox. All the problems I've had have been solved (almost) by the huge community of people who back the Linux framework. People spend their time on this in a huge way. I've had problems installing Real Player and Netflix on demand doesn't work - but it is a trend, not an endpoint.
So what does all this mean? It means I have a narrow field of vision and I'm certainly leaving some things out, but hey - it is just my viewpoint. Either way, I think we're trending away from MS. People are getting sick of a 5 minute boot time and all the hassles of Windows. People are starting to look at alternatives, and in the case of Apple - they're voting with their dollars. In the case of Linux, they are voting with their time - which is money, right?
If these trends continue, and I think they will, I can't see how MS will wiggle out of this without having Windows 7 be the best OS ever.